One cannot visualize a future without dismantling the past's unresolved dilemmas, especially considering that Lebanon "was built in a wrong way," as Deputy Najat Aoun Saliba said, and "the state is non-existent," according to human rights defender Wadih AlAsmar. If so, can those haunting demons be addressed, keeping in mind that the call for political reforms is as old as the country, as activist Serena Ibrahim noted?

This discussion was part of the dialogue on "The future of political reform in Lebanon that will contribute to stability and peace in the country." It included Saliba, also a university instructor; AlAsmar, president of the Lebanese Center for Human Rights; Ibrahim, founder and executive director of Youth Against Corruption; and myself, journalist Sawssan Abou-Zahr.

Lebanon is both a post-conflict and a conflict country. The war officially ended with the Taif Agreement of 1989, hosted by Saudi Arabia. The Lebanese needed Arab and international brokers to achieve a peace accord. They still rely on "the outside," since many of the political parties, sectarian by nature, "receive money from foreign governments," AlAsmar pointed out.

Most of them took part in the civil war; their notorious leaders turned into politicians. They escaped accountability with a self-granted amnesty law. Impunity ruled, with no judicial or financial retributions, and the fate of 17,000 disappeared individuals remains unknown. I stated in the discussion that wars don’t credibly stop without accountability, and peace in the absence of justice is fake. According to AlAsmar, "We didn’t get out of the war, it is still around." The events of May 7th, 2008, when Hezbollah used their arms against fellow Lebanese, the rounds of sectarian battles in Tripoli, and the Tayyouneh clashes of 2021, just to name a few examples.

Not only did the Lebanese end their armed conflict with impunity; they describe it very differently, mainly as a war for or of others, although it was indeed civil armed infighting between 1975 and 1989. They engaged in mutual killings over religious and sectarian identities. A shallow narrative blames "the others," the Palestinian factor, and the presence of generations of refugees since the colonial occupation of Palestine in 1948, along with armed groups of Palestinian resistance.

That’s a partial fact. Back in 1958, only 15 years after independence, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) was non-existent; yet the Lebanese had sectarian clashes that brought American marines to their shores. Even before the establishment of the state in 1920 with its current borders under the French mandate, the Druze and Maronite communities fought each other in the nineteenth century.

To cut it short, Lebanese history has many versions, mostly from the 18 religious sects and rarely a national critical one. Working for common values of citizenship, justice, and peacebuilding is a daily challenge in this troubled country.

Accountability: the key reform

Back to the discussion, all participants envisioned accountability as the priority reform, coupled with an independent judiciary. Saliba stated, "Accountability is the most important missing component in the country for year. I don’t want to see the warlords who ruled the country enjoying continuous amnesty and supporting crimes, maybe not in a civil war format, but they are robbing citizens and killing people without being held accountable."

She cited some examples of post-war impunity: the hindered investigation into the devastating Beirut blast of August 4th, 2020; former governor of Lebanon's central bank Riad Salameh remaining at large, and drug dealers "practicing business as usual." Therefore, impunity is political, economic, and social. The antidote, she believed, is an autonomous judiciary, free from political and sectarian interferences.

AlAsmar affirmed that "without accountability, we cannot have a future." The "Lebanon of the next day" must establish a truth and reconciliation commission. Sadly, such a pivotal tool for justice was brought up in 2023 when it should have taken place in 1989. He emphasized the need for "real" – an adjective used often, implying that previous reforms lacked essence and sustainability – separation of powers between the executive, legislative, and judiciary bodies. He also called for economic accountability.

Likewise, Ibrahim put anti-corruption measures at the top of her list because "the fiercest enemy to Lebanon’s future is the lack of transparency and accountability," noting that existing legislation was rarely implemented. She remarked that it was very common to say that "whatever happened in the country was the result of a geopolitical game," an argument meant to discourage the pursuit of reforms.

I evoked the possibility of retrospective accountability to penalize the "warlords who still control the establishment." I wondered whether that would lead to reconsidering, "at least asking questions" about the Taif agreement to figure out legal ways to counter their impunity.

Following the discussion, I sought the opinion of Aref ElAbed, a university instructor and expert in the Taif Accord. He said that no component of the system has the authority to abolish the amnesty law. Instead, he called for the validation of good governance laws.

The deep state: the reforms' killer

Therefore, one could argue that impunity is the major asset of the deep state, widely criticized by the participants. Saliba experienced it firsthand. She was elected in 2022 as a voice of change after the momentum of the October 17th Revolution of 2019. Like its mini-wars, Lebanon had its share of revolts attempting to fix the system after the Taif agreement, mainly in 2005 and 2015. The 2019 movement was decentralized and holistic. Beyond taking to the streets, it involved deep conversations about reconciliation, de-sectarianism, accountability, gender equality, and more rights for marginalized communities such as refugees and LGBTQ+.

Although Saliba and her 12 MPs (out of 128) emerged from civil society, they were soon divided on reform priorities, political accountability, and economic recovery plans amid a crisis described by the World Bank as the most devastating in the country’s history. For instance, the “change” MPs did not join her and colleague Melhem Khalaf at a Parliamentary sit-in against the presidential vacuum.

“If we dismantle 30 to 40 per cent of the deep state within four to five legislatures (the equivalent of 16 to 20 years at least), that would be something… The system will always try to regenerate itself, the challenge is to make it weaker with every cycle”

‍Wadih Al Asmar

I asked Saliba how her perception of reforms differed from outside the legislative body and inside it. She answered that before being a deputy she thought she was contributing to solving the country’s problems by doing “good NGO work… But it turned out that the more you serve the community, the more you actually support their system” of the deep state. She admitted not realizing to which extent the “corruption was engraved and well-rooted in the deep state.” It rules by consensus, “they divide the pie (outside the Parliament) and no one questions them (inside).”

In her words, “it took them 48 years (the start of the war in 1975) to build their deep state, I will be happy if we can counter it in three electoral rounds," that is 12 years if the polls are held on time and not delayed. Needless to say, this requires reforms towards a more inclusive and non-sectarian electoral process, along with more independent MPs remaking the establishment from within.

Building on Saliba’s reflection, AlAsmar thought that “if we dismantle 30 to 40 per cent of the deep state within four to five legislatures (the equivalent of 16 to 20 years at least), that would be something… The system will always try to regenerate itself, the challenge is to make it weaker with every cycle.” And they excel in manipulation, “they make us believe that any single moment of change is accidental and would never be repeated.”

Well, true, therefore we should look back at our assets, such as the vibrant and diverse civil society, still pushing for reforms amid a growing crackdown on feminists and LGBTQ+ activists, practiced by agents of the deep state, and legal harassment of independent media, along with shrinking financial resources.

Despite a Molotov cocktail attack on one of their centers, MARCH continues to advocate for reforms at a grassroots level, by denouncing violent extremism and building bridges of dialogue and economic sustainability for marginalized youth. Although its founder Lokman Slim was politically assassinated, UMAM is more determined to fulfill political change using films, exhibitions, and publications on the country’s controversial history and missing accountability. Last but not least, the Legal Agenda remains a vocal voice pushing for all-scale accountability through articles and awareness campaigns.

On the other hand, AlAsmar believed the deep state was much older than 48 years. He traced it back to 1926 when Lebanon’s first constitution was drafted. Almost a century later, “the sectarian record” mentioned in that document still rules the country. The constitution remains “battered” instead of “proactive,” he said. Therefore, one could argue that the Constitution too nourishes the deep state.

I asked ElAbed about it. As a fervent believer in the Taif agreement, he pointed to clauses deliberately dropped by the deep state, mainly the abolition of political sectarianism, which could have been the embodiment of sustainable reforms. He added that the Taif outlined that process, to first establish a confessional senate that would oversee turning the Parliament into a non-sectarian legislative body. Needless to say, this drastic metamorphosis would have undermined the deep state which nourishes “favouritism, subjugation, and dispersing of citizens.” However, it is not too late to push for it.

brahim pointed to sectarianism as one pillar of the deep state and a major obstacle to peaceful and viable reforms. In my view, the deep state is a coalition between warlords and clergymen, Christians, and Muslims alike. With the undisputed authorities of the religious courts, the deep state controls the personal lives of Lebanese. Women are its main prey; they are on the margin of the political establishment and terrorized by religious personal status laws. In addition, the outdated nationality law denies them the right to pass nationality to their children from foreign spouses. Addressing these gender injustices is an urgent socio-political reform.

“We were not clear in terms of what we sought of the October 17th Revolution. The opposition’s structure is still not ready… It is not yet a reformist or change opposition”

‍‍Wadih AlAsmar

I also pointed to hate speech and digital threats as instruments of the deep state, in addition to political assassinations that targeted Lokman Slim and civil leaders, including journalists, as a feature of post-war Lebanon. They rule by fear, building on their rigid deep-state impunity system, and inciting polarization and division among Lebanese. AlAsmar agreed: “They are willing to put the country into yet another civil war so they don’t lose their privileges.”

How to counter that?

Nevertheless, the record of failed reforms is not solely the fault of the warlords and their deep state, their “kingdom” as Saliba and AlAsmar described it. He admitted that “we were not clear in terms of what we sought of the October 17th Revolution. The opposition’s structure is still not ready… It is not yet a reformist or change opposition.”

He also said that Lebanese look at their diversity “in a romantic way whereas they are xenophobic.” I believe that one of the deficiencies of our society is the deeply rooted structural racism towards migrant domestic workers, and refugees, Palestinians denied rights in the formal labor market and living in ghettos like camps, and Syrians unjustly blamed for Lebanon’s chronic dysfunctions. A politically reformed country should be inclusive and tolerant towards the most vulnerable communities.

As gloomy as the present seems given the deep state’s solid grip, Saliba was confident that “winning was not too far.” Whether it takes 12 to 20 years or more, the above-proposed reforms, among others, would accumulate to break the vicious circle of impunity. The process requires patience, unity, and non-violent resistance along with peacebuilding, critical thinking, and strategic planning.