Since then, the Taliban's interim government lacks internal and international legitimacy, putting Afghanistan on crossroads for a lasting peace. The calls for a peace settlement have intensified, resonating not only within the international community, regional countries, also among various segments of Afghan society, including politicians, civil society, and ordinary citizens, asthe pursuit of lasting stability, sought for decades, remains elusive. The prevailing sentiment by different Afghans is that the war never truly ended for them. Amidst these calls, the harsh reality of increased violence grew in the country with a series of targeted killings of former army members, clashes between the Taliban and its opposing movements like National Resistance Front and Afghanistan Freedom Front, as well as ISIS-K attacks against Hazara and Shia muslim communities.

Afghanistan is the only country where women and girls have been banned from basic freedoms like school, university, and work, further darkening the prospects of progress. Additionally, minorities like Hazaras were forcibly evicted from their homes across several provinces by the Taliban, according to Human Rights Watch, dispelling any claim that Afghanistan has come to a state of genuine peace for people living inside the country.

Halim, 18, introducing herself only by first name for security concerns, recalls finishing 11th grade in western Afghanistan in 2021. She speaks of frustration of waiting for the Taliban to reopen her school. "It's been more than 800 days at home. My depression is so high. How long should I keep patience?", questioning with an angry voice that her life turned gray. She is one of the millions of Afghan girls who have been sitting at home for two years now, awaiting the reopening of girls’ secondary schools by the Taliban. These linked issues underscore the complexity of the situation, emphasizing the urgency for concrete actions to address them. In seeking answers to the prospects of any conceivable future peace process, experts are consulted to delve into possible pathways forward.

Obaidullah Baheer, an Afghan scholar and adjunct lecturer at the American University of Afghanistan, stresses the need for the Taliban to transition towards positive peace and calls the current state as negative peace and fragile that can slip back to conflict. To him, negative peace is just the absence of conflict, while positive peace involves inclusivity and transparency.

He proposes the Taliban should initiate a national dialogue with technocrats and people in Kabul. "I would propose picking technocrats, people who are professionals within their fields and have no political affiliation". We have to think about how the future in itself can change the larger society, Baheer says, adding that there is a need for a mechanism like Loya Jirga (grand council), a traditional Afghan decision making assembly formed of regional and tribal chiefs from across the country used for long to elect a new head of state or resolve critical issues like a new constitution.

To his belief, the inclusion of past political figures from the previous government in such a dialogue would not be a perfect solution. “I don’t want them to be part of a system or future decision making.” He calls on the international community to refrain from resurrecting figures like the “warlords” of 2001, such as Abdulrab Rasul Sayyafand Atta Muhammad Nur, past Mujahideen and northern alliance commander, who worked with US to topple the first Taliban government(1996-2001). He urges the world to ensure that this chapter closes definitively.

This vision is not far removed from what the international community and its multilateral bodies are trying to do. The United Nations laid key demands for future recognition of the Taliban that includes a future inclusive government and restoration of women’s rights. The UN Secretary-General Antoni Guterres proposed a roadmap that underlines the intra-Afghan dialogue to achieve the inclusion of Afghanistan back into the international community. It stressed for an inclusive governance structure, emphasizing a national political dialogue with all parties that reflects the diverse views of all Afghans.

“A national dialogue political dialogue would assist the process of how the nation can reconcile with each other for an inclusive Afghanistan,” he cited. Abdullah Khanjani, the former Afghan Deputy for the State Ministry of Peace now in exile, shares his experience from intra-Afghan dialogues and his meetings about peace with doubts.

“I participated in almost over hundreds of meetings with the Taliban. My conclusion is that the Taliban could not provide an opportunity to accommodate the difference of ideas”

‍Abdullah Khanjani

To him, unlike Baheer who calls for an engagement with the Taliban, Taliban is not a long-term viability as a solution for Afghanistan. “There is no long term solution for Afghanistan. I see the Taliban as a short term project,” Khanjani said, adding that the Taliban are as a result of incidents caused by external actors like the US foreign policy, highlighting the significant role of external factors that influence the nation's future.

“Afghanistan is not going to be followed on specific rules but on specific incidents. Two months ago the US was reporting on its achievement in the Middle East peacemaking and now the whole region is a mess. I mean September 11, 2001  was an incident for Afghanistan." 

In response to the recent calls for intra-Afghan dialogue, the Taliban leader Mullah Hebitullah Akhundzada, who has not made any public appearance since the Taliban takeover and resides in Kandahar province in southern Afghanistan, dismissed the UN report in his first cabinet meeting, suggesting aneed for political process as “not working”

The Taliban stressed that the establishment of a parallel mechanism by the UN is unacceptable.

It opposed "intra-Afghan dialogue" and an inclusive government, insisting that, "any attempt to bring back the failed figures of the past or form a coalition government is contrary to the sacrifices made by the Afghans."

Abbas Stankzai, political deputy of the Taliban's foreign ministry, stated on state TV, "We are not going to divide the ministries. Inclusive governments don't exist in other countries either."

Stankzai urged anti-Taliban political figures to return to Afghanistan and engage in talks but emphasized the Taliban's opposition to an inclusive government, stating, "In any country, when a faction comes to power, it forms its own government. The Taliban have struggled for 20 years, and now they have come to power.”

He noted that no country supports the Taliban opposition, and the opposition groups are weaker compared to 2001.

Time for intra-Afghan dialogue

Meanwhile, Graeme Smith, Senior analyst, at International Crisis Group, told what if, “there’s a risk that war could resume if the underlying tensions in Afghan society are not addressed. I can see that some Afghan political actors might prefer to engage with the Taliban in a process of dialogue rather than fighting them.”

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The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) showsthe status of conflict in Afghanistan to be high.

Source: ACLED ConflictIndex Mid-Year Update: Data as of July 2023.
In a recent move, a group of anti-Taliban Afghan political figures including Ahmad Massoud, leader of the National Resistance Front (NRF), and Mohammad Mohaqiq Chairman of the People's Islamic Unity Party of Afghanistan attended a conference in Moscow on November 23, 2023. The delegation’s message was clear: an all-inclusive political process was the key to go ahead.

“If the Taliban are not ready for an actual intra-Afghan dialogue with supervision of UN or regional countries, ... the Supreme Council of Afghanistan Resistance Front is ready to enter to the next stage powerfully"

‍Mohammad Mohaqiq

“If the Taliban are not ready for an actual intra-Afghan dialogue with supervision of UN or regional countries, to define the structure of future government that can guarantee the equal representationof all ethnic groups, political parties, and women, the Supreme Council of Afghanistan Resistance Front is ready to enter to the next stage powerfully, meaning, it reserved the right of comprehensive armed struggle in the field,” said Mohaqiq, well-known Hazara leader and member of NRF council.

Panjshir province, home to NRF, known for its resistance against the Soviet Union army in the northeastern part of the country, was the last stronghold resisting the Taliban takeover till its surrender. Currently, beside NRF, another group named as Afghanistan Freedom Front (AFF) is actively fighting the Taliban in the country. A new political group named Afghanistan United Front (AUF) formed of US-backed Afghan government generals also emerged in the US and said to start its political campaign against the Taliban.

The United States, which withdrew from the country in August 31, 2021 through Doha peace deal with the Taliban aiming to open further dialogue between the Afghan government and the Taliban, stated recently it does not support armed conflict against the Taliban, reiterating a demand for intra-Afghan dialogue to achieve a peace settlement.

In the absence of an immediate consensus between the Taliban and opposition for opening an intra-Afghan dialogue, the efforts for dialogue as a solution are undergoing by Afghans. On November 27-28, Herat 11th Security dialogue titled “Reimagining Afghanistan: Ways Forward” was held in Dushanbe, Tajikistan by Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS).

Different groups including the past political figures, academics, journalists, EU, Islamic Development Bank, and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation gathered to discuss the future of Afghanistan. The dialogue delved into regional consensus, global support, and national dialogue towards a democratic Afghanistan.

The conclusion drawn during the dialogue emphasized the urgent need for national dialogue to establish a legitimate government in Afghanistan, while also underscoring concerns about the Taliban posing a regional threat.

Shukriya Barakzai, the former female ambassador of Afghanistan in Norway, said on the sidelines of the Herat security, that the situation in Afghanistan will not remain as it is now, in particular the women’s situation. “If you see the silence now, that is a sign of silence before the storm,” she told Amu News Amu News.

“I hope the different Afghan parties understand the sensitivity of the time and issue and don’t let Afghanistan fade amid international games once again.”

Pathway: regional consensus

The pleas for an intra Afghan dialogue come as Afghanistan is grappling with the economic crisis since the fall of the country to the Taliban. It suffered from a recent earthquake in October this year, claiming the lives of over 3,000 people in the western part of the country with tens of villages reduced to rubbles. Additionally, a significant humanitarian crisis is playing out at the Afghan Torkham border with Pakistan where Pakistan is deporting 1.7 million “undocumented” Afghan refugees since November 2.

This deportation signaled the tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban, with the Pakistan PM linking the cause to the Taliban's support for Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group that has inflicted heavy losses for the Pakistani army. The Taliban leader has said the Taliban’s position is still the same as when the US was demanding the handover of Osama Bin Laden to the Americans. “TTP is the problem of Pakistan itself”. Given the fact that the Afghanistan issues do not confine just within its borders, Arash Yaqin, an Afghan American, a master in security studies and research analyst at theInstitute of World Politics offers a pathway onAfghanistan’s peace, encompassing the the necessity of regional cooperation to initiate a dialogue among Afghans.

"The key to our peace lies in securing commitments from nations invested in Afghanistan, such as China that shares a 92-kilometer border with Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and the UnitedStates, who seek security deals and assurances”

Arash Yaqin

Afghanistan has long standing disputes with Iran, particularly concerning the Helmand River that flows into the Sistan and Baluchistan provinces of Iran. Additionally, issues with Pakistan, such as theDurand Line, a border line agreed between the British Indian government andAfghan ruler Abdul Rahman Khan in 1893, further contributed to regional tensions over the years. Arash underscores the importance of initiating conversations about the next generation, fostering independent bodies with the moral and political courage to engage with the Taliban. In his view, the Taliban will only come to the table when the region (Pakistan, Iran, China,Russia) stands united behind Afghanistan.

“If you don’t have that regional solution as neutrality and peace, I don't think the neighbors will allow you to solve the internal problems.”

It has long been suggested by diverse Afghan and foreign experts to pursue peace in a multiethnic and linguistic landscape nation like Afghanistan, a regional approach, involving the region, is crucial. Without it, external support for factions opposing the power in Kabul will derail the nation's pursuit of peace.

Reflecting on the past peace efforts, Arash highlights a recurring theme: 'You go for peace when you lose power', arguing that the power-sharing concept never existed in Afghanistan.

He notes that this pattern persists across regimes, with leaders like president Mohammed Najibullah and Ashraf Ghani consider reconciliation only when faced with imminent loss: “Every Afghan opposition that didn't win the war went to talk with neighbors and never talked with Kabul rulers.Mujahideen went to Pakistan in the 80s, Taliban went to Pakistan.”

To his belief, the Taliban should initiate the approach for dialogue when they are in a position of power, and not in weakness. They now hold the key to the peace and stability that the Afghan people demand.